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since Mahomes proved so revelatory.
I think herein lies my point. Obviously it’s not a dunk to go back and make points in hindsight, but all 9 teams picking before the Chiefs obviously got their evaluation wrong in 2017, and it often falls out down the line that, as you say, as many ‘good to great’ QBs materialise from players picked later in the draft, or in later rounds. Lamar at 32 because he ‘couldn’t throw’.
I still remember the hair-pulling in 2012 when Washington picked Kirk Cousins in the 4th round after picking Robert in the 1st. Obviously dropped the ball in true Dan Snyder fashion re: his contract but I think if I was a GM I’d be looking for the value guys (and I’m hoping thats what Sam Howell proves to be,) and stacking the rest of my roster until I was sure I was ready to swing for the fences, rather than trying to win a Super Bowl with someone on the good side of ’good to great’, who is too good to release, (and thus on an expensive non-rookie contract,) but not great enough to get my team over the line, and winning enough games to never really get a shot at one of the top 5 picks.
Top 5 QBs since then:
2012, Luck and Robert
2013, None: EJ Manuel at 16 - Euch
2014, Blake Bortles at 3 (!!)
2015, Winston and Mariota,
2016, Goff and Wentz
2017, Trubisky
2018, Mayfield, Darnold
2019, Kyler Murray,
2020, Burrow, Tua
2021, Lawrence, Wilson, Trey Lance,
2022, None: Pickett at 20Obviously as you get more recent, the water gets more murky, but I can see why a GM might be as happy to take a Geno Smith and a project as opposed to using a top 5 pick and risk getting a Zach Wilson.
I know the needle has swung a bit for them now, but the Rams model was built around Snead and McVay’s belief that there was +ev in taking a known quantity player, taking advantage of a time when everyone else was coveting stashing as many draft picks as possible. Belichick at his best was famous for trading back to avoid early round variance and take as many bites of the cherry as possible. (helped of course, by never needing to draft a quarterback).
January-April just still seems to revolve around the narrative that a top 5 pick will fix all that ails a team (at any given position), and I just don’t buy it as much as a lot of people seem to. It feels like nobody wants to really let on that it’s way more a crapshoot than everyone wants to believe.
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Maybe Bryce Young, with the usual transition to NFL caveats. I’ve spoken before on the forum about my overall weariness of the draft every year containing ‘generational’ QB talent. The reality is that evaluating QBs is so far from an exact science, and you pay a premium to roll the dice.
My own position is that building a great team utilising $cap and then rolling those dice and getting a good enough QB on a rookie deal to give you a window is the best option for a SB run for most teams, short of being extremely fortunate in the above.
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Ha. It was extremely tongue in cheek. As a long time Washington fan I will simply never underestimate their ability to make mind boggling QB decisions though so who knows. I’d just as soon have a LB.
That said, he had the Dotson drop, and the DPI which would have been a big completion too which took some of the shine off of his stat line. I did genuinely think it was a good performance for a 5th rd QB who hasn’t taken first team practice reps yet - especially with Scott ‘run run pass’ turner calling plays. I’d have liked to see him earlier in the season to get a better read on him. He’s shown a bit more in his football career than Mills to this point so we’ll see!
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We used F Smith and Son and paid ~2k with packing for a 2 bed, moving 30 mins away in SE zone 5. Plus dismantle and rebuild a few bits of furniture like beds so we could focus on unpacking at the other end.
They were communicative, helpful and friendly on both ends, as well as in planning. Showed up when they said they would, and were considerate when packing to double check about things we wanted left out, even though we had set aside a box. The team we had were also considerate of bikes, which sounds silly, but without prompting they ackowledged that they were expensive and fragile items (in the context of being loaded onto a lorry full of furniture.) and they were treated accordingly.
One lamp did unfortunately break, but they didn’t quibble at all about sending over cash for a new replacement.
Yours was the navy with the dark terrazo backsplash right? Looked dead smart, needed dead flat sub-floor?