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Thanks, these were interesting articles and, inevitably, the more you get into it, the more complex it gets. But I see lots of discussion of herding, sample weighting and segment turnout assumption tweaking, but nothing that looks to me like it is trying to correct for systematic lying on the part of a chunk of respondents, eg shy Trump voters.

Any links? I'm trying to get to the bottom of it.

What I heard was that there was one poll which asked 'who are people like you voting for?' or 'who are your friends voting for?' and that was more accurate.

They absolutely do, or try to

What I heard was that they don't try to.

Apparently their approach is different from the UK. Here they try to predict a result taking factors like that into account. There the focus is on reporting clean numbers, allowing people to overlay their own assumptions, should they wish to.

What the polls looking like today? Since this is basically a gamble at this point, what's ppls bets?

Trump.

Reason being I understand that the polls don't correct for the 'shy Trump voter' effect and he has historically done better than polls have expected. Harris would have to be a few points further ahead to have a good chance.

(@hugo7) Reasons to buy now:
Markets tend to go up after presidential election, regardless of who wins. Average is 3.5% by end of the year.

Reasons to hold off:
Two possible buying opportunites - which of course may or may not happen.

1. Some people expect a Truss-style bond market response following a Trump victory.
   
2. Markets likely to fall when Iran next spanks Israel, which could be any day.
   
   

I've not read much talk of a market fall if Harris wins, so wouldn't hold off if that was my expectation.

Giant Dash

I had no doubts when I read his book and how he had himself done it. OK, he could have made it all up, but I was convinced.

What are the reasons not to believe him?

Does Adrian do that too? Will Pomeroy - who organises the crazy audax from Bristol to Glasgow and back - does it and says it is great.

I keep meaning to try it - but I would want to be able to have the option to turn on a map view if things got complicated. And to see data fields when I get a bit bored...

It looks OK to me.

In similar circumstances I fixed daughter's bike to the side of the box with cable ties, which worked fine too. A bit of pipe insulation to stop rubbing at critical points, etc...

Sure, I'm around most days

Thanks, good thought. I hope someone on here might be interested, but will have to look wider if not

Wow, hadn't heard that - how come, liability for illegal ones or something?

I'm selling an e-Bullitt with child carrying box.
I need the space so no sensible offer refused!

https://www.lfgss.com/conversations/399579/#comment17562633

I did this for a while a couple of years ago and researched a lot of apps. I did it for audaxes up to 400km and liked it.

I mainly used BikeComputer. The pro version costs maybe €8 lifetime licence. It's good, great display, does power and everything else I wanted. Has offline maps.

I found it better than rwgps as it has a night / dark mode and has a lot more data fields.

Rwgps is OK, a bit more user friendly, but only for daytime use.

BikeComputer doesn't have a lap button so, for doing intervals, I used Cyclemeter. That is a good app, also more user friendly, but doesn't have offline mapping.

If you don't use a power meter there are a lot more good options, eg osmand.

I stopped using it after an old Samsung phone burned out on a wet 200km in Wales. Phones are great apart from when it's really wet. But I still have another waterproof phone set up as a spare GPS and it has been fine in rain.

I still have osmand set up on my phone which I use on my ultra bike, alongside my GPS, when I want more route detail, context, pois etc.

I use velcro as a phone mount on my ultra bike. My gps phone has a stick-on Garmin mount that costs a couple of pounds and means I can use it interchangeably with a Garmin (or Giant / Stages Dash that I now use) on all my bikes.

https://play.google.com/store/apps/details?id=de.rooehler.bikecomputer&hl=en_GB

https://cyclemeter.com/

Another bump as price reduction: £3,500, or sensible offer.
I want to get rid of it so I can get a longtail, so will ebay it soon if no interest here.

Sorry - skim read the thread and missed that!

No-one has mentioned his name, but I assume it is Thomas Günsel, no? If so I hadn't heard of him before.

Hard to see organisers of other events rushing to accept his entry if he gets lawyered up when things don't go to plan.

I might flip Carlos a message of support as I expect it probably is a bit scary getting sued, even if it's hard to see it going anywhere.

Politics is all about making these coalitions, though.

The Greens managed to pull that off last time, winning in both urban, previously Labour constituencies and rural Tory ones.

Johnson's great achievement was to build a coalition that spanned the elite and enough working class voters in Labour red wall seats to give him a majority.

Next time it will be harder for the Greens in the Tory areas, though. Virtually all of their second places, from which they will select their targets, are in Labour seats - so I'd expect them to double down on a positioning to the left of Labour. And Labour has left an awful lot of space there.

If Tories lurch further to the right under their new leader the best outcome for them is if the centerists they lose are split between Labour and LD. The nightmare is if one gets them all as more electorally efficient.

Looks good. Would you put it inside a box, or just as is?

We have this which is not nearly as secure and supportive, but has worked really well for us for the last couple of years. Normally it has only been one occupant but we have given quite a few friends the occasional lift and it has been comfortable for 2 x 4-6 yo.

https://www.madjax.co.uk/

Good luck

Definitely over pack. Having too much stuff on a night ride is a minor inconvenience, having too little food or warm clothes is really not fun.

As others say, dress for a temperature lower than forecast, from experience I would subtract 5 degrees as base case, but it could be more.

And it doesn't warm up until later than you might expect. The coldest time is usually after dawn, and you are tired and damp so feel the cold much more.

An anecdote from last year. I was doing an overnight ride on a tandem and, about midnight, on a short descent, the bike was wobbling strangely. I realised that it was because my stoker was shivering, because he had too few / the wrong clothes. So I stopped and gave him my extra spare base layer.

It's not a bad idea to carry one of those foil blanket things.

Even a full battery would struggle to last long enough for A&E on a friday evening.
Hope nothing too serious

Unlucky - you spent most of your time on 4 TCRs posting on twitter with no issues, then get undone by that!

[duplicate]

I didn't know that was what you were doing!

I used to apply it while riding but through years of riding ultras I have discovered that I only need to put it on once and it lasts all day!

Very wise!