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Professor Johan Giesecke, one of the world’s most senior epidemiologists, advisor to the Swedish Government, the first Chief Scientist of the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control, and an advisor to the director general of the WHO, lays out why he thinks:

• UK policy on lockdown and other European countries are not evidence-based
  
• The correct policy is to protect the old and the frail only
  
• This will eventually lead to herd immunity as a “by-product”
  
• The initial UK response, before the “180 degree U-turn”, was better
  
• The Imperial College paper was “not very good” and he has never seen an unpublished paper have so much policy impact
  
• The paper was very much too pessimistic
  
• Any such models are a dubious basis for public policy anyway
  
• The flattening of the curve is due to the most vulnerable dying first as much as the lockdown
  
• The results will eventually be similar for all countries
  
• Covid-19 is a “mild disease” and similar to the flu, and it was the novelty of the disease that scared people.
  
• The actual fatality rate of Covid-19 is the region of 0.1%
  
• At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available
  
  

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bfN2JWifLCY

wait.. why did he block you?

https://twitter.com/nntaleb/status/1250029245650386946

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/deathsregisteredweeklyinenglandandwalesprovisional/weekending3april2020

The provisional number of deaths registered in England and Wales in
the week ending 3 April 2020 (Week 14) was 16,387; this represents an
increase of 5,246 deaths registered compared with the previous week
(Week 13) and 6,082 more than the five-year average.

Of the deaths registered in Week 14, 3,475 mentioned “novel
coronavirus (COVID-19)”, which was 21.2% of all deaths; this compares
with 539 (4.8% of all deaths) in Week 13.

Anyone know anything about this Horde?

Excess Winter Mortality includes respiratory deaths, so yes most Corona deaths would be included in its figures but not those happening after February.

"excess winter mortality (EWM) index by the three leading causes of death: circulatory diseases, respiratory diseases and dementia and Alzheimer’s disease"

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/excesswintermortalityinenglandandwales/2018to2019provisionaland2017to2018final

Excessive winter mortality last year (December, January, February) was 49,410 total deaths.
549 per day on average

Interesting number of deaths to the virus went down today, when you'd expect the 'weekend effect' to raise it.
https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/pdf/10.1177/1355819616649630

Current UK death rate together with imperials estimated infection rate modeling is pushing the overall mortality rate of the disease to below 1%

We estimate that, across all 11 countries between 7 and 43 million individuals have been infected > with SARS-CoV-2 up to 28th March, representing between 1.88% and 11.43% of the population.

https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/medicine/sph/ide/gida-fellowships/Imperial-College-COVID19-Europe-estimates-and-NPI-impact-30-03-2020.pdf

@handtightenonly send me a DM to arrange

@moño in reserve

I'm sure my old rollers would be of use to someone else right now.
Not looking to profiteer on the chaos - £20 pickup brixton

The drums and strap are in pretty good condition as I rarely static train.
The clamps have started to loose their original grip but still work with some additional padding.

*Comes with the box if you wanted it

How I roll.

This is the legislation im referring
http://www.legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/pdfs/uksi_20200350_en.pdf

Confirmed the maximum fixed penalty is £960
I'm not sure what penalty limits are if you choose a court decision

...

doublepost - *admin delete

oh yeah, cv-19
I keep forgetting

Thanks found some crazy russian vide0 of bending the springs back into place but think i'll order replacements.

This is the 3rd set ive done this too.
It it a common issue with eggbeaters or likely due to my tendency to pedal strike?

Would traction pads help?
https://uk.crankbrothers.com/products/traction-pads-eggbeater

Any more rides planned before the bikes leave?

I like the idea of back to back / Double Bridges..
East to west >> West to East

Help!

I can no longer remain clipped in to my left eggbeater.

The spring seems to have come loose.
Is this fixable?

ive been staying sane by clocking up my bike miles.

Survey for the Preston show that shows mixed compliance the guidance.
90% report staying away from non family members but only 48% actively working from home.

*https://www.jlpartners.co.uk/polling-results

https://twitter.com/neil_ferguson/status/1241835454707699713 - O_o

Its official, bikeshops are an essential service.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/874732/230320_-_Revised_guidance_note_-_finalVF.pdf

This has happened for bike stores in New York
https://twitter.com/NYCSpeakerCoJo/status/1241067475250356225

very cool

Can anyone argue that Belgium hasn't proven that lockdowns (*in European cultures/climates) dont work?

Lockdowns seem ineffective and far more costly when compared to rigorous comprehensive testing. (Japan/SK)

Having to bail also, was cycling in that wind earlier and it destroyed me.
Can't face it again.
Have a great ride.