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I was thinking about this while I walked the dog. Putin doesn't give a shit about the narrative outside Russia - the recent media clampdown has been about maintaining his own reality within. Obviously, this is unsustainable compared to what was possible back when the Soviet Union was still about. The fact polls presently back the 'special military operation' or whatever he's calling it, might encourage him to quickly claim a victory in 'de-militarizing / de-nazifying' or whatever nonsense he wants to make up and withdraw before his ability to maintain that narrative falls apart further.

Frankly, if that eventually moves towards a de-escalation of sanctions by the west, you could imagine him viewing it as a win, or at least a draw that he survives to probe again in the future.

On the Fiona Hill thing; evidence that we have so far seems to suggest that resistance is leading to escalation. Happy to be corrected on that one, it's just how it appears from what I'm seeing.

Hey I've no idea really but I think this is what you'd expect - Ukraine chose to resist, short term escalation is inevitable, but the price for Putin's goal has ratcheted up exponentially. That's the steel.

the situation here is that Ukraine do not have enough weight to change Russia / Putin's policy. Putin will just continue to obliterate their country and people.

It's also not yet clear whether "the west's" economic sanctions have sufficient weight to bring Putin / the Kremlin to the negotiating table either. The hope is that they will eventually, however "eventually" is already too late for many people who have lost their lives, and horrendously will also be too late for many more who have yet to do so.

Agreed, although I don't think either are clear. I suspect that Ukraine have in a sense already changed Putin's policy by being dramatically more effective in resisting than anyone in his administration had imagined. I think it was Fiona Hill that described Putin's foreign policy along the lines of the Lenin quote: 'you probe with bayonets: if you find mush, you push, if you find steel, withdraw.'

Hopefully that Ukrainian resistance along with a far more co-ordinated and severe program of global sanctions will make him withdraw quickly. Ukraine and Russia are already negotiating but it's really in Putin's hands at the moment.

I agree that the US has been inching towards a harder line on Russia since 2016 but the evidence that they interfered in the 2016 election is voluminous, read the Mueller Report, or the GOP led, bi-partisan Senate Intelligence committee report from 2020.

Implying that 'we' the west need to get to negotiations with Russia and find an acceptable solution denies Ukraine's agency, which is what Putin has wanted all along.

Western governments would be quite happy for Russia to be stuck in an Afghanistan type occupation, where they can't get out without losing everything, so they have to stay at massive human and financial cost, until putin gets deposed or however else it ends.

Is there any evidence for this? The west has been extremely comfortable with Putin's Russia for the last couple of decades. Reliance on Russian energy in Europe, gobs of oligarch cash juicing local property markets, political parties etc. Do you really think western governments want the second largest nuclear power, led by a questionably adjusted autocrat bogged down in a bloody war on Europe's doorstep? I'd bet every one of them would take a quick Russian withdrawal to 2014 lines and a staged reversal of sanctions in a hot minute. Betting on regime change happening organically in Russia is a pretty out of the money option, especially without the sort of turbulence that would deleteriously affect western European interests in the short term.

Thread along similar lines.

https://twitter.com/IbrahimAlAssil/status/1498357325060579328

That’s big news. Can’t see anyone beating Peter Hickman at the moment but will be good to watch.

@carson You suggested that: 'it suits the West for Ukraine to suffer - the more grotesque and public the better.' and 'having Russia bogged down in a ghastly, messy war of occupation is perhaps of far more practical use to us, isn't it?'

A Ukrainian military victory would surely be the most acute political defeat for Putin, no? Even worse than a drawn out, bloody war that eventually leads to a semi-permanent Russian occupation. I don't see a conflict of interest between the west and Ukraine, unless you're suggesting that swift capitulation, a no-doubt bloody purge of their existing government and military and a new Putin-esque puppet regime without democratic legitimacy is their best option?

Ukraine's values are aligned with ours but they are first and foremost fighting for their own territory and sovereignty. Seems entirely right that those at the UN give the guy a standing ovation, and surely all the support he asks for, short of that which throws NATO members into direct conflict with Russia.

I think Carson is very wrong. Putin ordered the invasion of a neighboring country, entirely without justification. If there is something 'morally ambiguous or even dishonest' about the wests 'posture,' how does it hold that position becomes more 'morally certain' as more Ukrainians are obliterated?

'why do we not accept what we believe to be inevitable and not prolong and intensify the suffering of Ukrainians?'

There's nothing inevitable about Russia winning. Who are 'we' to tell the Ukranians to roll over for Russia and put up with another Yanukovych styled puppet? 2014 is less than a decade ago, how do you think it would go for protestors of the next regime?

'Apart from the violation of the principal of national sovereignty, does the West really care about the fate of Ukraine?'

Seriously??? Europe's entire post-war settlement, economic order, the formation and expansion of the EU is built around rules based, democratic principles. So yes, a regressive autocrat threatening nuclear war and sending a 30k long army column towards the Capital city of a fledging democratic fellow traveler is incredibly threatening to western values, both human and philosophical.

'We clap for an independent Ukraine, but having Russia bogged down in a ghastly, messy war of occupation is perhaps of far more practical use to us, isn't it?'

It's a fucking disaster for everyone. Even if you believe that there may be some eventual positives if the Russians decide to oust Putin and reform in a manner more conducive to western priorities, it's going to be a long period of desperate uncertainty, political infighting, instability and suffering. Sure, there's no doubt a cohort of western disaster capitalists that will embrace that, but for fuck's sake, you can't seriously suggest a war on the doorstep is a positive for anyone? Or indeed that the west, outside a few gobby super-hawks are embracing it or cheering it on? It seems remarkably apparent, given the overwhelming consensus for sanctions and indeed the lukewarm response from Russian allies, ex-Belarus, that no one approves of what Putin is up to.

Excuse me if the response seems grumpy but the fatalistic cynicism of that opinion is thoroughly depressing.

I'm sure they're great - I just don't like big, heavy bikes. Never been my thing and even less as I get creakier!

Love that!

42 here, no desire for a GS.

5’9 here and no bother with touching the ground on any dirtbike I’ve had. Being a big unit is an advantage though for sure.

Nah, I’m fit enough just wildly out of practice... Big exposures, rocky, rutted and steep - I was death gripping too much and struggling to stay forward on the bike. Got a bit better towards the end. I’ll probably be fine next time.

This is the way…

Amazing - I did about 30miles and I’m crackered!

Haha - love it!

Yeah was good. The rain has washed away a lot of the topsoils since I was last up there, so even the double blue diamonds are gnarly in spots.

Did my first nadgery trail ride in ages yesterday. Lots of rocky, twisty ups and downs. I’m knackered!
Bike worked pretty well, even with the higher gearing. It’s bloody hard work though - it hits so hard in the midrange, that it’s difficult to maintain drive up the very steep stuff where it’s sandy and more technical.

Ran well on the 100ll Avgas I’ve now figured out how to buy for the delightfully modest price of 5 bucks a gallon too! Result.

Me too!

That's hilarious. Looks like a deathtrap.

Which way around are they supposed to be?

Cycletrader, offerup, Craigslist.

Good work PD! I find doing two strokes quite therapeutic. Sometimes....
I put zipties around the ends of the gear shafts to stop anything getting lost.

B&D workmates are sooo useful.

Hard Enduro is mental! I don't get the attraction at all. Dead cool to watch though - check out all the Red Bull vids.

You'll need to take all that off. After that, get a case separator to split the cases - don't try and pry them apart. Be careful not to lose any thrust washers when you take out the gear clusters. You'll want a crank puller to help re-assemble. There's nothing complicated - just take your time. Use of an oven / freezer is pretty important, so start buttering up your mum / missus now as it stinks the place out a bit.

Agree on the theory. Training my ear to learn which notes give the quality to chords really helped me. And figuring out lots of different inversions.
I’ve got short fat fingers and large palms so thumb over a lot. Also way easier to comp bass lines on the e string.