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That said I think that Soul is underestimating the number of swing voters (c. 18% according to an NYT study).
That's a surprisingly high number. Are those swing voters self defined or genuinely swing between D & R per election? I wonder how many define themselves as such but actually end up falling the same side of the coin each time.
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My point can be boiled down to this:
I don't believe your original statement (Not being obviously horrendous arseholes who won't change much worked pretty well for 'Labour' here, so it’s perfectly possible over there too.) can be applied to a more entrenched two party ballot.
I provided lots of points as to why but this is as short as I can make my point.
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keep disaffected Tories at home
There was a drop in voter turnout but the right (Tory + Reform) made up 40% of the vote this time around. In 2019, it was 45%. Looking at Labour, their vote share was 33% this election and 32% in the last election.
Therefore, the swing to the right for Tory voters played a significant role in the majority Labour enjoyed.
My point is that this isn't possible in the US where the entire spectrum of the right (or left) remain locked to voting for their preordained team.
Of course there's nuance to the UK election like constituency efficiency of vote share but fairly extreme gerrymandering in the US already accounts for that.
I hope Harris wins but I really don't think you can draw election strategy comparisons between the UK system and the US.
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The problem with that argument is that the UK isn't a locked two party system. There were significant numbers of transient votes who moved from Tory to Reform, Tory to Lid Dem and Lib Dem to Labour.
In the US, views are significantly more entrenched and many people will have decided to vote R or D based on decades of familial or community influence. Those people will very rarely, if ever, change their views. If anything, the way social media creates and promotes echo chambers means that these views are more entrenched than ever.
I can't see a way Trump doesn't win right now.
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The pictures and details coming out of Valencia are truly shocking.
There's only a single mention of climate change being a factor in this event on the BBC live coverage which is disheartening.
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Steady on. That MG EV is one of the cheapest available in the UK and it’s 6cm shorter than a ford focus hatchback so not exactly a German wanker barge SUV.
On street charging of electric vehicles is something that needs to be addressed and it hardly seems like this old guy is the demon you’re looking for.
Also, unless I’m reading it incorrectly, he doesn’t think it’s ok to put a trip hazard there, he’s asked for a channel for the cable.
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Watched Weird Al on prime last night.
Lost a little bit of impact towards the last 20 mins as things were obviously weird the whole way through but lots of fun. Enjoying Harry Potters IDGAF phase.