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useless

Member since Oct 2010 • Last active Jun 2021
  • 1 conversations
  • 313 comments

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  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    If you get the same answer doing it three different ways, it's probably a good sign :)

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    If you port the mortgage, you're just switching which house it's secured against, right?

    So if the bank will lend you an extra £200k against the new place, and you have £300k in cash from the sale, you have £500k to spend (less solicitors' fees, moving costs etc.)

    That matches your notional paying-it-back-and-getting-a-new-mortgag­e number, so I think it's right.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Well, you obviously can if you're elected President.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Ah, cheers - I didn't know (or had forgotten) that you could do that with WhatsApp in the first place, so that explains it.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Yeah, sure, absolutely.

    But it's useful to distinguish between inertia and functionality. If WhatsApp really does something special (apart from advertising), it'd be interesting to know what.

    But if Signal is just as good in terms of functionality, we should be saying that clearly and correcting claims to the contrary.

    (with apologies for the unintentional tongue twister)

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Is it much different?

    Apart from the quirky background and friendly shade of green, I've never noticed WhatsApp doing anything special in the field of actual messaging.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Cheers!

    That link doesn't work for me, but the gist was:

    1. Effect of first lockdown, accurately forecast
    2. Effects of later lockdowns, not accurately forecast because firms adapted
    3. Public finances better than predicted, and unemployment lower
    4. Therefore (maybe) such growth, very success once vaccination complete and everything reopened.
  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Oh, absolutely. You won't catch me trying to time the markets.

    It's hard to imagine a much lower inflation environment is coming, but of course we've had low wage inflation compared to asset inflation for a while. This could be an asset bubble driven by low interest rates, or partly by diverting wage growth into asset appreciation, or there could be other factors.

    How the gig economy lawsuits and regulatory activity, possible productivity effects, government stimuli and let's - optimistically - call it "creative destruction" in the wider economy all work out is totally unpredictable. At least I'm not going to try predicting it.

    Even if some of the current, low rate of inflation just moved back into wages where it arguably belonged, it's not clear what that means for monetary policy. People seem much happier to interpret rising share prices as economic success, and rising wages as overheating.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    I think we're in an anticipating-higher-inflation situation, which isn't quite the same thing.

    For example, from last month: https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/risi­ng-rates

    and, possibly paywalled:
    https://www.economist.com/britain/2021/0­3/31/british-firms-are-adapting-to-lockd­owns-and-confounding-forecasters

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    You mean, why is it up 36% in 12 months?

    The top component is their US Equity fund, and that's up 45% in the same time, with half the OCF.

    So it's up since last April because basically all equities are, and it's "only" up 36% because it's diversified away from the current best-performing fund, for safety. Does that answer your question?

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