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welpeur

Member since Aug 2008 • Last active Nov 2019
  • 11 conversations
  • 238 comments

Most recent activity

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    This is interesting from yougov polls

    https://www.cnbc.com/2019/11/07/brexit-t­hese-four-charts-show-how-the-uk-electio­n-could-play-out.html

    I combined with cohort population data (from statista) to get the expectation of actual votes per party which lumped together comes out at Conservative/Brexit/UKIP (48.6%) Labour/Lib Dem and the rest (51.4%)

    The take-away is that the cohorts 18-49y, particularly below 39y hold a huge potential for swing vote if their voting intention is correct as they are heavily under-represented relative to the older cohorts

    Increasing their turnout to the same level as the older cohorts swings that split to 46.4% vs 53.6% so Labour et al would do well to focus very hard on mobilising those age groups to actually vote if they don't won't to be disenfranchised

    NB The survey itself indicates a likely significant under-intention to vote as a whole as the turnout intention overall is 59.8% compared to 68.8% for last GE and 72% for the referendum and previous surveys suggest a higher likelihood of turnout (see https://www.theguardian.com/politics/201­6/jul/09/young-people-referendum-turnout­-brexit-twice-as-high) which would suggest that split is more likely to widen to the survey result

  • in General
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    As per everyone else, see specialist. Sudden cardiac deaths in athletes can be due to magnesium deficiency. A close friend who was exceptionally fit, working as a messenger and started having scares with his heart was referred to a specialist who had experience with this, a few days into magnesium supplementation, he was good, no further problems. Don't assume its that, get proper diagnosis, but it may be worth supplementing in high dosage in meantime.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Purely on Brexit, which is an appalling reason for a G.E., but the unfortunate likelihood of dominating electioneering in the event it happened, it's not clear that it would be smart for Conservatives to go full on for Brexit based on this report from Guardian last year on the breakdown of seats by updated Leave/ Remain polls which have presumably moved further toward Remain

    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/201­8/aug/11/more-than-100-pro-leave-constit­uencies-switch-to-remain

    Who knows. This is just depressing.

    https://www.irishtimes.com/culture/books­/brexit-is-aggressive-and-dangerously-no­stalgic-the-uk-is-in-for-a-brutal-chaste­ning-1.3841576

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    I am so sick of the self-serving agendas of the politicians and the shadowy stuff behind everything. The dysfunction in the country is grotesque, and any which way round, there is a total failure to put meaningful thought or action into beginning to address real problems that affect a far greater part of the population. This kind of thing is entirely unacceptable in what is touted as leading world nation:

    Annual poverty figures published today have shown that the number of poor children living in working families has risen from 67% to 70%. According to an Child Poverty Action Group analysis, the figures also show that there are 200,000 more children living in absolute poverty and 4.1m children in poverty after housing costs are taken into account, meaning 30% of UK children are below the poverty line.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    So, here's a quick of back envelope calc'n if we can get a second ref based on the effect of the fact that over the last 3y, the cohort effect will capture an increased number of youth voters:

    4y cohorts in the age group = 3.7million which approx. to 2.775million NEW voters (previously below 18y old, calc'd as 3y (2016 to 2019) of the 4y cohort i.e. 0.75 * 3.7)

    Original turnout for 18-24y was 64% which is probably conservative in the event of a second ref, but using that gives a NEW VOTER TURNOUT of an additional 1.776million

    Using poll averages reported from BBC for voter preference in that age group of 82% REMAIN leaves a NET ADDITIONAL VOTE OF 1.14million votes to REMAIN from this demographic effect alone.

    This is before any change of sentiment with existing voters, and is a conservative estimate as a second ref is likely to mobilise a far higher turnout. (It also excludes the loss of any elderly voters which were biased toward Leave, but this relatively insignificant compared to the capture of new voters).

    So, just treading water, it's pretty hard to argue that the previous referendum would be aligned with the wish of what is now the legitimate electorate. Should there be a long extension of 2y, this effect would become even further pronounced all else being equal.

  • Avatar for welpeur

    Interesting.

    Although the anecdotes I see re the behaviour of Leavers seems incongruent with this conclusion!:

    "This distribution also sheds some light on why Leavers are more likely to be tolerant of people’s differing political beliefs than Remainers are"

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    Am I missing something - has she a way to bring the deal back now for a third vote ?

  • Avatar for welpeur

    People are failing to consider the impact on everyone else, which is an angry reaction to the fact that many of them feel that they have been mistreated or failed. There have been various reports recently on the global effect of Brexit on employment in far flung, dirt poor countries. Closer to home, a lady at Dublin City University just released a report of the effect of no-deal on employment in Ireland:

    "impact of WTO tariffs on primary and manufacturing (goods producing) employment across Irish counties. Highest impact is in Monaghan -9.2%, driven by the fact that 21% of employment there is in Agri-Food"

    These are real people elsewhere who will be losing jobs, in addition to all the UK job losses and the potential unleashing of a negative economic spiral.

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