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Greenbank

Member since Oct 2007 • Last active Jan 2021

Endurance idiot.

Most recent activity

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Look at his cash total, he's already taken close to $14mm out. He's slowly selling his April calls at about 200-300 a day.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Seems a lot of the big guys have taken new short positions out on the assumption that the stock isn't going to go any higher.

    Some sites (such as Ortex) are reporting the float on loan under 100% now, which would indicate the longs are starting to sell up and the shorts are starting to be able to cover. (I wouldn't be surprised if Mr $50mm position has shed a sizeable chunk of that.) Last time this stock was under 100% float on loan was June 2019 (which was about the time that he started to accrue his $50k position.)

    One way to cover a huge loss going one way (after having to cover your position with $$$$) is to get the majority of it back on the way back down by shorting it. If too many people think the same then it just continues as it creeps back up to >100% float on loan and the squeeze is on again. So it's either up or horizontal for a long time unless something big happens.

    The second squeeze is the borrow cost which is running at ~25% (annual) right now. That's going to hurt a lot for anyone with a sizeable short position but, as always, favours the bigger firms.

  • in COVID-19
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    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-55828952

    Schools back 8th March at the earliest?

    Really unlikely.

    Dither and delay for 4 more weeks after that and you're at Easter, and so they wouldn't be back until ~19th April, which is way more likely less unlikely.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    I have a TKL and I have not missed the numpad at all. Most of my typing is coding or emails.

    It helps that I touch type (>130wpm) and don't look down at all (blank keycaps too). I can find the arrow keys and PgUp/PgDn/etc by feel almost straight away anyway.

    For me the order of importance for looking for a keyboard (highest to lowest):-

    features (bluetooth)
    layout (full, tkl, 60% or 65% compact)
    switches (Has to be Cherry MX Silent for me otherwise I'd drive myself, wife and daughter nuts with the noise)
    keycaps (PBT ideally)

    Keycaps would be higher up the list but they can be replaced at any time, so they end up bottom. You can't just replace all of the switches or change the format after you've bought the keyboard.

    I'd be interested in trying out all of the different switches, at the moment I know that it has to be Cherry MX Red Silent as that's all that I trust is quiet enough. Maybe I should buy one of those testing boards and then sell it on around the forum after trying it out.

    I'll be buying a wired Filco Majestouch 2 (Cherry MX Red Silent) with blank or front-printed keycaps as a spare soon.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Seriously though, I'm not sure how these situations tend to play out.

    If the price starts to plummet it's because people are selling in order to realise their gains, but you need people to buy at the high prices in order for that to happen. Someone with a few shares might be able to sell to someone late to the party who is mugged paying $300, but the majority of the sales are going to be made way back down under $100.

    I'm guessing that the majority of people who are saying "hold, it's going to go higher" are secretly selling out to the new bunch of people piling in late. It may end up getting to $1000 but only 0.01% of people are going to be able to sell at that price. The rest are going to find they can't get more than $100 for their shares, if that.

    Once it starts going down enough the people buying will be some of the short sellers who want to end the uncertainty and cover their short position. They'll make a loss but at least their position will be done and they can move on to the next stock.

    The short sellers with the real money (and no pressure from the broker to cover the margin) will just hold out longer as they will eventually be able to cover their positions for a much smaller amount, and possibly even back as a profit. (For example, if they shorted it at $20 originally, drove it down to $3 and got greedy looking for more, they only need to get it back down to under $20 and they can cover their options and still make some money.)

    Ultimately the share price will end up back around where it was before all of the shorting began, but how it does that will be interesting.

    However, the fun starts up again once it gets under 100% of the float shorted as you might see a new wave of people trying to short it, for the reason that it's currently over-valued and will eventually settle back down to where it was originally.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    If it's going to crash then it's a good time to short it...

    Oh.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    What's the usual three lock plan?

    Nightlatch (middle) keyed-alike with one of the deadlocks (with a thumbturn on the inside).

    Then a separate deadlock with a different key, requiring keys both sides, to be used for longer term vacancy (e.g. holidays)?

    (Preferred it where I grew up that had a single Yale lock that would open at a cough. That with bike and work related keys means I end up walking around like a bloody jailer half the time.)

  • in COVID-19
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    The plane is fine, as it flushes air regularly

    Once it is airborne.

    There's at least 15 minutes you're rammed inside in close proximity with others with no proper ventilation before it actually takes off. Similar for time from landing to disembarking.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Tottenham will never win anything.

  • in COVID-19
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    A stat that was eye opening: a fifth of Covid deaths have listed diabetes on the death certificate.

    It's not unexpected given the age profile of the deaths.

    https://www.diabetes.org.uk/resources-s3­/2017-11/diabetes_in_the_uk_2010.pdf

    In 2001, one in five people over the age of 85 had diabetes. Around one in four people in care homes (27 per cent) had diabetes which is a higher prevalence than in the comparable general population. The figures may have increased since 2001.

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