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t-v

Member since Mar 2019 • Last active Feb 2020
  • 3 conversations
  • 449 comments

Most recent activity

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    The way the CCP has managed to contain the virus is by mass quarantining and shutting down large parts of the economy. That has been effective in slowing the growth of new cases, but can they continue with that until the virus is eradicated in China? At some point I expect they will relax measures and beak outs will flare up, or it will re-imported from other countries it has spread to. The virus is now established in other countries that are unwilling or unable to take the same containment measures as China, and they will be the source for further spread.

    @T_Inglesby on Twitter is good as regards measures to blunt the spread and how governments should respond. Maybe it is happening behind the scenes, but it feels like there needs to be a far greater mobilisation of public resources and coordinated international planning to tackle this.

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    I'm not sure the people in developing countries this will fall hardest on have particularly high carbon footprints.

    If the Chinese could create a virus that specifically targeted the executive class, that would be another matter.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    I fear we are looking at a global pandemic, likely to effect somewhere between 40% to 70% of the world's population, with a number of fatalities somewhere between 15m and 100m.

    Impact will be worst in developing countries with fragile public health systems and limited response capacity, but still felt heavily in developed countries, with majority of deaths among elderly or those with other chronic illnesses, but with a significant number of deaths among young, otherwise healthy people.

    I think there will be major economic and geo-political effects, although difficult to predict the extent of these.

    Somebody please tell me why I am wrong.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    Seasonal flu has a case fatality rate of around 0.1%. This has an estimated case fatality rate of around 1%. That is a massive difference.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    general public health measures for preventing spread of the disease would be useful.

    What type of measures?

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    I cling to the idea that this can be contained and eliminated, but from what we know about it that seems highly unlikely.

    I also wonder how many countries there are where epidemics are developing with no reported cases. There is massive Chinese investment and presence in Africa - I find it hard to believe there are no cases in sub Saharan Africa.

  • in Miscellaneous and Meaningless
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    I don't think you will get any discount out of the Grand Seiko boutiques without a history of purchases. I think @Soul got discount from a distributor (can't remember which) on his snowflake. Watches of Mayfair seem to offer discount on GS, but don't know if they would source the model.

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