Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

Chang had nursed his father at home after he fell sick in late January. He took the older man to several hospitals, but could not find a bed, Caixin reported. On 28 January he was the family’s first victim but others had already become infected.

To me that reads like they received no medical care.

I suppose I'd got the impression it's a bit like the flu in that if you're going to recover anyway you don't need hospital or medical care, just rest and recovery time. For his parents I understand things would be different, like getting the flu when you're 80.

Spooky

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From 1981

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Infinite monkeys predict all futures

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wreck_of_the_Titan:_Or,_Futility

Dean Koontz

A big factor seems to be viral load. If you’re exposed to a small amount of the virus, you stand a good chance of recovery. If you’re exposed to a large amount of the virus eg as a healthcare worker of someone caring for sufferers at home, then the risks to you go up.

Hence dead doctors too I guess.
Disturbing. I don't really get how that works - virus multiplies in you as the host, but you're more vulnerable to other people's viruses? Or your immune system can fight off one infection, but kick it while it's down and it can't cope?
Anyone know if you get immunity after recovery yet?

Infinite monkeys predict all futures

The industry that produces this kind of trash is like infinite monkeys to the power of infinity.

If you're surrounded by people whose infection has progressed, you're repeatedly being exposed to a higher concentration of the virus than if one infected person coughs on you in aa bus

Chart of the day
https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/coronavirus-cases/#active-cases

tl;dr: numbers are going down. slowly. could be a blip. now wash your hands.

Except when experts say that, there's a surge of cases and deaths.

Next, someone uses the underground to get to hospital and there goes everything to hell in a handbasket

There's still some debate whether wave theory for viral pandemics is a thing but still worth sharing this to show that it'll be a while before we can relax.

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Should also caveat that China have changed the way they count again and are now deducting cases where the person has symptoms but tests negative in the screening tests (so just has the normal flu).

I wouldn’t worry about the random person on the tube, I’d worry about the person making and serving your food/beer/mocktail/smoothy etc. Quite a lot don’t get sick pay anymore thanks to zero hours contracts so have no choice but to go to work when feeling under the weather.

Also I'm not sure whether it's really advisable to base anything on how the Spanish flu went 100 years ago. It would seem like the entire world has significantly changed in that time, including migration and mobility patterns, not to mention that in Europe, we're not just finalising / recovering from a hugely devastating war. Is there really no other at least large-ish, but also slightly more recent viral outbreak that could serve as an indication?

Should also caveat that China have changed the way they count again and are now deducting cases where the person has symptoms but tests negative in the screening tests (so just has the normal flu).

Wait, they were not doing that before? Am I missing something, or is it pretty obvious that people who test negative should not be included in the 'confirmed infected' count?

Totally agree. There's not enough information to make any assumptions on what might happen next.

Was just really pointing out that the reporting of the reduction in cases is potentially meaningless.

Sure, it's completely possible there's another wave coming of course. As before, we're in a state of "not really sure how this is going to work out". But as I said before, it still doesn't seem to be something we in Europe should be panicking about.

On the topic of panicking and reactions in general - honestly, I find it pretty shocking how quickly casual racism against east Asian-looking people comes out, just heard some guys on a German podcast I listen to talk about some cases they saw too. Imagine how fucking bad this would get if we had an actual pandemic going on in Europe right now?? Unbelievable.

The book The Eyes Of Darkness was released in 1981
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Eyes_of_Darkness

The virus laboratory in Wuhan was founded in 1956
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wuhan_Institute_of_Virology

So not exactly predicting the future there

The UCI on Covid-19

https://www.uci.org/news/2020/novel-coronavirus-important-information

Wasn't the Spanish flu deadly because it mutated and the mutations formed the wave pattern?

Yeah. We're not out of the woods yet.

We should be grateful this pandemic started in a place where the control measures necessary to contain the virus are 'politically' viable.