Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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  • Let's see what the sage Andrew Lilico has to say about that:


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  • The guy two to the right of Biden on this photo taken at an event on the 16th has now come down with Covid:

    https://www.flickr.com/photos/dhsgov/516­02154957/

  • Also:


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  • I'd imagine quite significantly worse. Think they'll try to ride it out.

  • Best to wait until it's too late again of course... :)

    I'm not sure a strict lockdown is needed but baffled there are so few restrictions on indoor events with full vaccination rate still so low.

    Twitter doesn't offer room for much nuance. That tweet out of context seems to be "it's not as bad as expected therefore ANY restrictions be stupid"

  • Without any sign of exponential growth it doesn't look like it's going to get much worse. Lilico says there will be less COVID cases this winter than there are now because within a few weeks it will have burnt through the unvaccinated kids. I choose to believe him!

  • Good point well made:


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  • London’s hospital bed and ICU numbers in the last week have gone up day on day after dropping consistently since approx July, somethings up.

    Other countries have been vaxxing kids before boosters because its the fucking kids who spread it as I think I’ve been consistently speculating.

  • I don't.

    Cases are going up a lot now in the Netherlands which has relaxed rules and a lot of no mask wearers.

    Kids are vaccinated there, and vaccine protection is not yet waning there.

    His argument that other predictions were too pessimistic doesn't mean he cannot be wrong.

    Wait and see. What restrictions would you accept?

  • Great, feeding right into the "but COVID is all about a powergrab!!!!" narrative.

  • Beware the single topic posters. They tend to be a bit, well, fixated.

  • I don't know what measures I'd support as I just don't know what works. I can pivot into authoritarianism when appropriate! But doesn't seem to really be needed right now. I'm still pretty much locked down myself.

    I'm quite worried this week as half my family, including two children, two NHS workers and four people in their mid-70s, are on holiday at Bangface a UK resort.

    I'm veering towards the calmer voices now as Covid becomes a chronic threat. Lilico strikes a good balance of being rational and optimistic but not an anti lockdown loon either. Francois Balloux is my other go-to.

  • The UK death rate is highest since March and covid cases per 100K are the highest in Europe...sure Covid is chronic, but wow. Not looking so good to me!

    Indoor masking and restrictions on mass events seem to make a difference in mainland Europe. And behaving like the pandemic is a thing, instead of throwing all caution to the wind.

    I hope your family will be OK... :)

  • Regardless of whether Lilico is right or not, he's an irresponsible twat for the the tone of his tweets.

  • He also completely misses the point that the suggestions/predictions of imminent problems (in the news/media) will have (and will have had) a strong effect on the behaviour of many people, mitigating a lot of the need for the measures that were suggested.

    It's the same level of analysis that my 11yo displays when I tell her to be careful of something and I get the "You were wrong! There's no point telling me to be careful, see, I didn't get too close and fall in the water" because she's now hyper aware of the danger.

  • He also misses the point that while Sage have been way off in their autumn modelling they have also both underestimated and got things bang on in the past. Feels like egregious fallacy of origin to me. Let's see if he was right in three weeks!

  • Statistically avoiding COVID is still easier than catching it, adding to the "See!!! It's fine!!!" narrative.

    Just can't be bothered catching it but I'm risk adverse naturally.

    People aren't given the tools to weigh up risks.

    Want to go to a nightclub? Ok, get double jabbed and get some lateral flow tests, meet your granny outside.

    But it's all or nothing for many, "I'm fine" "my immune system is grand" "I want to live my life" etc.

  • I'm sure he's aware of that, it maybe by now doesn't need stating.

    Here's a new Balloux thread with figures on what endemic Covid might look like when we reach it. With estimated/concocted figures e.g. 20k cases a day, 7000 deaths a year, each individual getting it once every 9 years and being sick for about 2.5 days:

    https://mobile.twitter.com/BallouxFranco­is/status/1450758279093751814

  • Here’s some anecdotal stuff:
    On Monday I knew 1 person who had Covid. There were friends of friends, spouses of colleagues etc but only one person who I knew well throughout the whole pandemic who caught it.
    Yesterday an additional 3
    Seems it’s taking a bite out of the West Country

  • If we're doing anecdata, my wife had a team away day for work a few weeks ago. In the evening, the team split into two groups and went to two different pubs. One group of six and one group of eight. 7 days later, all 8 of the group of 8 had tested positive for Covid and none of the other 6 have, despite spending the whole day in the same room together, which might indicate that the infections happened in the pub.

  • Where some of the modelling has been over-pessimistic, I think Lilico's own model is overly optimistic, as has been shown by numbers going well above what he was forecasting - though there is, of course, always an explanation for this. It's interesting to get contrasting views from the same numbers though as we are still really in pretty much unknown territory.

    We're into a week or 2 of half term now, so there should be a drop in case numbers next week, but fewer windows open now (for one thing) will, I expect, see mid-november numbers start to climb again. How much they climb (and translate into hospitalisation/death) and what the upper level of acceptable is will be the key issue.

  • It was passed on the aye's have it in the chamber without the division vote, so there wasn't actually no vote.

    https://twitter.com/DarrenPlymouth/statu­s/1450745020622020610

  • He does really seem to be having a bit of a meltdown.

    Bit weird for him to be saying we should ignore scientists and their models when they have been wrong some of the time, when his own economic models are wrong some of the time. Sometimes spectacularly so.

    Who knows, maybe he's right this time but his outbursts over the last 24 hours have been pretty egocentric and anti-science.

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Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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