Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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  • I know Monday's numbers are generally lower due to the reporting delays over the weekend but the death numbers are really falling.

    17 today (which will climb a bit obviously, but still, that's the lowest that's been reported on a day for a long long time).

    I'm starting to wonder about this. The definition of a COVID death of one within 28 days of a positive test was criticised by people saying that it included random deaths that were not due to COVID, but also people that slipped in the shower etc. and we didn't know the S/N ratio.

    As a metric, this definition made sense to me when the daily deaths were 1000+, and we now know that the "noise" is no more than 30 a day given where we are. But I also think we must be very close to the point where the stats are more noise than signal. Does anyone know any way of finding out numbers of deaths where COVID is given as "cause of death" rather than death within 28 days of +ve test?

  • Does anyone know any way of finding out numbers of deaths where COVID is given as "cause of death" rather than death within 28 days of +ve test?

    Just dig into the Deaths link on the UK Coronavirus Data page: https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/­deaths

    and you've got: "Daily deaths with COVID-19 on the death certificate by date of death"

    That data lags behind by 11 days (at least) though as it takes a while for the death registrations to get through.

    Latest data is 55 deaths in the UK on 19-03-2021 with Covid-19 mentioned on the death certificate.

    That, and the day before, took it over 150,000 on that metric. If it continues to drop at the current rate (roughly halving every 7 days) it wouldn't get to 151,000.

  • Let's not get the champagne out, but a promising analysis out of UCL.

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/brita­in-herd-immunity-coronavirus-ucl-b928417­.html

  • lets hope so..

    It seems like Isreal has vaccinated about 10% more of their total population so I continue to keep an eye on them

    Cases per million
    Isreal: 38
    UK: 46
    Europe: 233

  • Here in the Netherlands, thanks to our intelligent lockdown, that we are all very proud of, we have.... 400+ cases per million.

  • It seems like Isreal has vaccinated about 10% more of their total population so I continue to keep an eye on them

    Cases per million
    Isreal: 38
    UK: 46
    Europe: 233

    Are you quite sure that is real? :)

  • the cases per million?

    Should read daily cases per million

  • Look more closely. :)

  • Yes it's truly awful. My girlfriends family are from the Netherlands, one of her cousins household has just got it.

  • 🤦♂️
    Israel

  • Vaccination booked for both of us.

    Bummer Netherlands/France are a bit of a Covid mess... family is there.

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-i­reland-56669504

    AZ vaccine replaced for under 30s. I long wondered if the blood clot issue wasn't a coincidence but with EMA suspecting a casual link, and this, it seems not.

    I'm still not worried, will just keep an eye out for headaches with blurred vision as those seem to be signs of clots.

  • Two of my friends had it recently. Though the total deaths is relatively low compared to the UK.

  • Matt Hancock disagrees ;)

    https://www.standard.co.uk/news/politics­/matt-hancock-dismisses-uk-covid-herd-im­munity-monday-b928447.html

    The standard article also mentions that the torygraph had published Imperial data models, from that claims about half of UCL figure. I'm concerned that this will be used by the h0ax people to claim it is time to ease restrictions.

  • Lots of people disagree - including other experts (fuck Hancock). That's why I suggested no one open up any champagne. Still, to be even having the conversation is in some way good news.

  • AZ vaccine replaced for under 30s. I long wondered if the blood clot issue wasn't a coincidence but with EMA suspecting a casual link, and this, it seems not.

    You mentioned, a while back, people taking the contraceptive pill have blood clot issues https://theconversation.com/blood-clot-r­isks-comparing-the-astrazeneca-vaccine-a­nd-the-contraceptive-pill-158652, the author looks respectable and the figure is backed up here https://www.independent.co.uk/voices/pil­l-blood-clots-vaccine-covid-astrazeneca-­b1818613.html Yet there doesn't seem to be such an issue.

  • There is a strange mechanism in humans that "new stuff" gets judged more harshly than existing stuff.

    People freaking out over flu jab are now dealing out over the Covid one.

    As yes, the pill risks clots. BUT one pill had a much higher risk and got withdrawn.

    Also perhaps "but this has risks too" is not the best argument either?

    And there was a lot of chat on social media / some UK papers the EU was being political which made 0 sense as it was Norway and Finland that started reporting this...now the UK decides this.

    I'm still fine with the risk picture myself. Also not sure why some countries set the bar at over 50 or 60.

    But with these things, there can be local rules or nuance I just don't know about.

  • Extra fuck hancock as he was talking to Nick Ferrari?

    You are right, this is good news.

  • "but this has risks too" is not the best argument either?

    Maybe you are right, could it be that the discussion that everything medical has possible side effects, as long as the side effects aren't worse than the illness itself(!) Taking quite a few meds for my various ailments, reading the list of possible side effects can give some the fear of side effects, so they won't take the medication.

  • The list of side effects is both essential reading and both enjoyed with some death metal in the background :p

    As you say, it's weighing up risk Vs benefits. That's where I don't know why some countries set the age bar much higher than 30.

  • there doesn't seem to be such an issue.

    But an awful lot more people take/have taken the pill, and do so regularly so you have to take that into account

  • My wife had to stop taking certain contraceptives after her dad died from a blood clot, obviously they didn't kill her in the years she was taking them, she's also now not going to be given that vaccine, also very unlikely to kill her but as she's already at a higher risk of blood clots I guess it's safer to avoid covid and get a different vaccine or wait until any links can be disproved.

  • From what I read contraception blood clots and Covid blood clots have a different mechanism / cause.

    I'm not a blood clot risk for contraceptives, but idk what my immune system will do when I gets the vaccine to react, getting Covid is still much more dangerous. We avoided it so far, perhaps I could wait.

    But I'm thinking high vaccine rates is more things opening and lock down is ultra hard for some people, so maybe I feel like it's a duty to me?

    But I also understand some people waiting for Pfizer / another vaccine.

    Don't know if you get that option though? Maybe GP can help?

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Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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