Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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  • Why assume a false positive? 80% of the positives the ONS find are asymptomatic

  • Interesting graphic on the tiers

  • The Wirral being crap at anything again . Still in tier 3 though .

  • I have been part of the ONS surveys for six months. Was always told they’d only contact me if I was positive. Got a letter at the beginning of the week (just after I had been to see my dad) and read the first half and thought “oh fuck have I passed it to him”. Got to the bottom half and the test was negative.

  • Why assume a false positive? 80% of the positives the ONS find are asymptomatic

    That doesn't tell you anything about how many of those positives are false. Mathematically speaking, if you're testing people at random as ONS are, a large proportion of the positives you find are going to be false.

    That said, if you do get a positive result, you should behave as if it's valid unless you fancy killing people.

  • I thought ONS retest all the positives for that reason, so the 80% asymptomatic positive rate they report are true positives

  • It’s less the asymptomatic Nature, more that the furthest I’ve been from my front door is to put the bin out with no visitors / contact for quite a while.

  • Can compare to this one. Nottingham seems the anomaly in both cases.


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  • New state of alarm in Spain. Unlike the last one, this won’t be renewed every 2 weeks but instead is planned to last until April (!).

    So far the only measures being talked about are curfew from 11pm - 6am and restricted movement between regions. I really hope that is enough to dampen the spread of the virus, along with the current rules on limited occupancy in restaurants/bars and enforced mask wearing at all times. Another lockdown like March-May would really break the economy.

  • Mate who lives in SW France, about 90 minutes inland from Bayonne/Biarritz has been under 9pm-6am curfew since the 23rd October.

  • Same, someone I know in Slovenia said they have now gone in to 9pm to 6am curfew

  • Curfew here coming in tomorrow. Puzzlingly it's from 11pm to 6am so almost useless as the streets are largely empty outside those times other than in the capital

  • Anyone know how its going in Australia?

  • From friends in Sydney: back to normal. Open, business working etc. Think they had 8 cases in NSW last week.

  • You are in Luxembourg?
    I wonder if your curfew applies to truck drivers?

  • Yep, I'm in Lux. I suspect it won't apply to anyone who's going to work; we have people who start at 6am which means they're either leaving home or crossing the border around 5:30am. We've not had any indication that this isn't permitted.

    Still, 800-odd new cases yesterday for a population of 500k, they've got to do something.

  • Are the curfews to stop people meeting inside each other's homes?

  • We haven't had a community transmitted case in Queensland for six weeks... Yesterday Victoria reported no new cases and NSW only had one...

    We're doing much better than most places but there's a big push in Victoria from the right and retailers to lift all restrictions... There's been an increase in quotas for Australians returning from overseas, as long as the states don't screw quarantine up (like Victoria did last time) we should continue to be okay, but who knows?

    I've caught another cold so went for another covid test today, feels like a strange thing to do when there are no cases...

  • My assumption is it's a stealth ban on late night boozing and dancing. In Luxembourg unless you're working or going to hospital etc, the only reason you're out after 11pm is that you're having a good night out as restaurants are shut by 11pm. We also have a rule of 4 in place which limits transmission inside the home.

    All that said, given the colder weather and darker mornings I'm not out before 6 and given it's no fun sitting outside bars when it's 4 degrees, I'm not going to bars either. So I can't say I'm even noticing the curfew.

  • Apparently we have bought the equivalent of a 36 year supply of coveralls despite them having a 3 year shelf life, or spent £708m on them when we only used £13m worth. Mind boggles.

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status­/1320777848085450752

    https://twitter.com/JolyonMaugham/status­/1320996355872083968

  • That is mind blowing.

  • Wish I was part of the old boys club, comprehensive club doesn't come with those perks.

  • The whole thing is fucking outrageous:

    The fifth biggest (for a mere £32,560,000) went to Initia Ventures Limited, a dormant company with net assets of £100.

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Chat about Novel Coronavirus - 2019-nCoV - COVID-19

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