General Election 2019

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  • Honda: 'We're closing our factory in Swindon you ungrateful shits'
    Swindon electorate: 'Hi Tory MP, have an increase in your absolute majority'.

  • I think the Diego Garcians are next in line to be totally fucked.

  • I’m 34, paid £1.5k tuition fees (final year) and grew up under Blair when politics were “boring” other than pointless wars etc. From what I remember the tories voted with new labour on a lot of the bigger policies and going to war in Iraq.

  • are we playing this game?

    I will go last.

  • I think Spain will apply pressure to at a minimum get Gibraltar, and possibly the Falklands- otherwise no FTA, no services, no flights etc

  • Economic modelling at a macro scale is notoriously inaccurate.

    There is no A:B test for any of this stuff. What we do not know is what would have happened anyway. We can look to other major European economies that are not exiting the EU: Germany and France both teetering on the edge of recession as indicators of more global issues.

    50/50 is a sensible position to take.

  • War, singular.

  • What claim does Spain have on the fucking Falkland Islands?

  • None, but every Spanish person I’ve known strongly feels that the Malvinas belong to Argentina. But maybe I’ve just met weird ones.

  • Juvenal knows best

  • Given the Spanish control of them ended around 200 years ago, and they were uninhabited then, I'd say the UK Government have slightly more of a case.

    Ultimately, the people who live there should determine who governs them. As far as I'm aware, most of them are happy being a UK protectorate.

  • It's mostly penguins m8

  • And land mines, unmapped landmines.

  • quick opinion from an italian grown up during Berlusconi golden age:
    BJ has been able to tell what people wanted to hear. he got the votes (and the seats), he rules. UK will survive, one way or the other. he'll drop the harsh manners and he will compromise.
    JC failed miserably versus some of the worst tories governments of the last 30 years. possibly a good and kind soul, but wrong leader at the wrong time. he wanted brexit as much as BJ but he could not say it. Labour needs to understand that capitalism is bit more complex than a zerosum game.

  • Falklands is mostly squid. Surely?

  • No, it isn't.

    Macro forecasting may be difficult, but forecasting whether putting in place additional trade barriers impacts the economy is not difficult. They do. That's well studied and demonstrable.

    50/50 is not supportable based on any evidence. The "evidence of global issues" doesn't change the fundamentals, that we're making our own position worse.

  • Is there anything the opposition can do and what can we do other than try and help the people in need in our local communities?

    See Conservatives organising fuel riots to undermine Blair and force a majority Goverment to change tax's on motorists

  • But that’s only true if they both lie, which is my point- if Labour don’t lie but Johnson continues too then Labour would have to present an austerity budget whilst Johnson spends money like water.

    The Silver lining of this election result (personally) is the Conservatives get to own the disaster of Brexit (an entirely right wing invention). Or at least, some people will see it as this. Sadly Brexit may pile us into such dark times of individualism and intolerance history will be 'revised'. Brexit will be seen as a response to Tony Blair's immigration policy in the same way I hear the 2007 global economic crash was the result Gordon Brown's mismanagement.

    Whatever the economic prospects of Brexit, the public didn't generally believe we'll disappear down a black hole and you certainly can't campaign telling people that. Corbyn's Labour were widely accused of lying, even when they tried to present the full, costed truth. So I'm suggesting Labour only needed to be on the right-side of the tories - less dishonest. Labour (this election and before) were perceived by the voter to lack fiscal credibility, so actually had more to gain (than the tories) by having a modest spending plan. It would have even married well with the pre-existing narrative of Boris as reckless chancer (if you wanted to go down that route).

    Labour could have still been the relatively high spending government, because they had tax plans that should bring more revenue.

  • Labour, Lib Dems and Greens must all consider their positions now. Reset and form a credible opposition that works together to hold the Tories to account.

    There are many, many pitfalls ahead for a Tory govt that is properly owning Brexit now.

    ^ this. Solidarity.

    Plus no more Commie hats, Marxist bicycles and saying 'solidarity' n shit.

  • I hear the 2007 global economic crash was the result Gordon Brown's mismanagement.

    This is such a straw man argument - the point that Cameron et al were trying to make was that towards the end of Blair II and all the way through Blair III they really ramped up spending in a pro-cyclical, anti-Keynesian fashion. This meant that even at the end of one of the greatest periods of growth in the UK’s history, the fiscal balance going into the recession was already in deficit. Hence when automatic stabilisers kicked in in 2008-9 we were breaching all of the EU Stability and Growth Pact triggers and got placed in an Excessive Deficit Procedure. This would have been the case even without the nationalisation of RBS etc (which had a national debt impact but not a lasting deficit impact).

  • Would, in your opinion, the Excessive Deficit Procedure have happened regardless of the worldwide economic crash?

  • I worked on the Labour campaign in Uxbridge because it looked just possible that Boris might lose his seat there. I never expected Labour to get a majority in parliament, but I just hoped that if we could pull off a miracle in Uxbridge it would put a serious dent in the so -called Brexit mandate. Alas it was not to be.

    This is a post-result letter which I have sent to the candidate, Ali Milani.

    Hi Ali,

    However disappointing the result was on the thirteenth, I want to say that I believe you were an excellent candidate who ran a great campaign. I’m sure that you can look forward to a successful career in the Labour movement – the same applies to your able assistant, James.

    At the Friends Meeting House HQ on Thursday I experienced a great feeling of goodwill and comradeship, with an impressive mixture of generations and cultures joined in a common purpose – just the sort of atmosphere which ought to win elections.

    It’s a pity that we, and all the other Labour workers, were lions led by a donkey.

    Yours,

    Chris.

  • I tend to believe that the economic cycle is exogenous in as far as a recession will happen every 10-15 years. The 2007-8 crash was only usual because of its magnitude (which was probably related to how much leverage and excess developed in the run-up to it).

    There is a bit of a time inconsistency to be a Keynesian when it suits (ie anti austerity at the moment when growth is slow), but abandon the flip side, which is to run offsetting fiscal surpluses in periods of above-trend growth.

  • The most depressing thought I've had this week is that what did for Thatcher (to some extent) and Major and Cameron and May was the Tory party's internal disagreements about the EU. With that out of the way they are much better placed to be united and disciplined and not so given to fratricide.

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General Election 2019

Posted by Avatar for dancing james @dancing james

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