General Election 2019

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  • I agree with this, though the MRP was the closest in 2017, and reflects what all the others are predominantly saying, so I think the trend is broadly right. That said, something like 27 of the Tory gains are 5% or below which is within margin of error so could still go either way.
    So for me while a hung parliament is still possible, it's less likely than a Tory majority. Still time for change but as discussed at length yesterday it doesn't look like the momentum is changing.

  • Imagine the worst thing ever.

    .

    .

    .

    Even worse than that.

  • I’m sure they’ve done work to improve, but it is still notoriously difficult to reflect a nationwide poll with a representative sample, and one that is weighted to correct for misrepresentation.

    For that Yougov MRP they interviewed 100,000 people.

  • Another hope is that if the polls show a big lead then voter complacency kicks in from that side.

  • March
    https://www.theguardian.com/politics/201­9/mar/24/tory-islamophobia-row-15-suspen­ded-councillors-quietly-reinstated

    The other week
    https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/po­litics/conservative-councillors-suspende­d-islamophobia-racism-latest-a9201161.ht­ml

    Obviously when you read between the lines the story is a bit different. But it highlights the different PR strategies and processes.

    Or have I misunderstood a sarcastic joke about JC and Momentum pushing out dissenters?

  • How widespread is the knowledge that Yougov was founded by and is co-owned by a Tory MP?

  • I also live in a heavily Jewish area (Bury south) and it's saying that even with tactical voting, the tories will win.

    FML

    Being in the liberal metropolitain elite is a right laugh

  • I'll keep tracking them, but it might persuade me to switch from Green.

    I don't blame you given the stakes but this is why our FPP needs to go. It's destroying our democracy.

  • Perhaps I’m total miss understanding you but that seams to reinforce what I’m saying. Generally there doing fuck all. In fact it’s worse than that there being down right deceitful.

    The Baroness Warsi quote from the second article seams to sum it up nicely. But as Matt Handcock points out some people have a bit more perspective than she does.

    But Baroness Warsi said “similar” promises had been made before, adding: “Then it has come to light that people have been suspended for less than a week – and when media attention moves on they are let back in to the party.”

  • Here's a different perspective on anti-semitism, from a very respected Hackney community activist and rabbi:

    https://www.hackneygazette.co.uk/news/cr­ime-court/stamford-hill-shomrim-chair-ra­bbi-herschel-gluck-says-police-funding-c­uts-to-blame-for-rise-in-hate-crime-1-63­97220

    Rabbi Gluck said Brexit and Labour's antisemitism problems have had little to do with the rise in attacks.

    "I do not think any of the attacks in Hackney have been caused by issues in the Labour Party or Jeremy Corbyn," he continued.

    "These are antisemitic attacks, pure and simple, and I think they are part of a pattern that started long before Brexit and have increased exponentially since the current government came in," he said.

    Deeply depressing to hear about all this.

    It's obviously also interesting what he says about the lack of police coverage.

  • Pretty much every synagogue and jewish school around here (Cheetham Hill, Crumpsall, Broughton, Prestwich, Whitefield) has security on all the time. It's depressing

  • Yeah. I think we're talking at cross purposes and likely agree.

    My original point was that the Tory party has no problem with cognitive dissonance. They would happily hang someone out to dry for expressing the same views as Johnson if there were mileage in it.

    My later point was that from an optics POV they appear to quickly condemn and expel in contrast to Labours convoluted process.

  • Fucking hell. I mean, they didn't hold out their hands, but that's not a good look.

  • My social media bubble is inundated with loads of articles and quotes from Boris about, single mothers, young people, working class people etc, what are the chances this kind of stuff is getting displayed to target voters in marginal constituencies?

  • Definitely agree, FPP is a disaster, we can’t keep having X years of the two main parties ruling followed by the opposition undoing all their work when they get in. It’s a pointless merry go round.

  • The US deal is modelled at 0.1 to 0.3% of GDP. All other FTA’s (apart from EU) don’t even make it to 0.1%, so they’re left out of the governments own models- which are extremely optimistic.

    = I’m afraid your Brexiters are cargo cultists, not free trade hawks, and are not available for conversion as you can’t reason someone out of a position that they didn’t reason themselves into.

  • Agree. The problem is that no party will look to change it after successfully getting into Government through FPP. Broken system

  • Nick fucking Clegg could’ve changed it, but being a soppy fucking liberal he agreed on a referendum on changing the voting system, rather than making it a pre-condition of going into coalition with the Tories.

  • Is it soppy to expect the public are given a say in massive changes to the electoral system?

  • Right.

    But that doesn't have anything to do with whether a soft leaver either has to acknowledge how bad a hard brexit would be, or if they did, whether they think that it'll all come out in the wash.

  • The Jon Worth summary on Tactical voting is the best that I've found @hugo7

    https://jonworth.eu/2019-uk-general-elec­tion-tactical-voting-guide/

  • Zero.

    That kind of negative targeting only works as intended with some people anyway, others harden to it.

  • Related to the investigations around religious hatred:

    Political parties shouldn’t be expelling people for saying horrible things. You can investigate bullying or harassment sure, then make the information freely available and let the public (who are better places to judge dispassionately) decide with their votes or support. If their actions are illegal that’s another matter.

    Expelling people in a PR effort is operating like a business and encourages deception/cover-ups etc. It’s understandable that people are confused and think this is appropriate (because it’s common, normal even) but it’s a shit habit for an semi-democratic organisation to get into, it kills off competition of ideas and gets abused.

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General Election 2019

Posted by Avatar for dancing james @dancing james

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