General Election 2019

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  • Most leavers are invested in the culture war aspect, not the reality- see the “I had to vote leave to stop the Muslims” comments. They’d likely be happy with any sort of exit, it’s not as if they know what Leave actually is.

  • I can barely fathom how bad a full tory brexit majority will be for the country

  • But are there many soft leavers?
    Get your second point though.

  • To be a soft leaver you need to acknowledge how bad a hard brexit would be, and if you’re capable of doing that you would recognize that any brexit now possible is harmful and has no upside.

    =soft leavers are now remainers.

  • I think it’s a reasonably interesting overall point.
    I think the conservatives have done a good job of cornering their vote. Relying that it is large enough to secure them a majority.

  • Fair point.
    Is the remainer but “accepting the inevitability of leaving” and want it over a group?

  • There's a theory that a hefty Tory majority may be better than a slim one. It would make it easier to sideline the extreme elements of the ERG as any deal wouldn't be relying on their votes.

  • I’m sure @Sparky will come on and defend it, but given the record of polling in the last three major votes in this country, why would we trust them now? I’m sure they’ve done work to improve, but it is still notoriously difficult to reflect a nationwide poll with a representative sample, and one that is weighted to correct for misrepresentation.

    There is only one poll that matters and the focus should be on reaching those voters who can change the result.

  • Probably overlaps with “want to remain but can never vote for Corbyn”

  • No, sorry, I disagree fundamentally there. You can never guarantee how an interview is going to go - especially this one which is supposed to be 'tough'. But you can argue that it's fair if both sides go through it.

    As I said - if this becomes a pure gamble because you can't trust anything the BBC says, you will just end up with neither side agreeing to an interview.

  • Also if labour did get in and negotiate a new deal, leavers will say the deal is so bad that it’s basically sabotage (to force remain).

    Plus in the scenario of labour managing boris’ deal, that would be better than boris managing it... I think they’ve missed a trick.

  • I’d agree. Think there is probably a significant group that feel they’ll be largely unaffected either way, who would prefer to stay but think more delay is equally as harmful

  • Last nights Neil interview with some Tory who I've never seen or heard of before gave a little taste of what Boris would be in for. Examples of Tory member and local councillors who made Islamphobic comments on a par with Boris own comments who have been suspended and then quietly reinstated. That in a nutshell is the Torys problem, they can't kick people out for saying the same stuff as the party leader.

    Hopefully the main stream media will start to give this the same kind of attention that Antisemitism gets, faint hope I know.

  • I still think hung parliament most likely

  • Surely the fact that Labour have had to rethink their strategy is indicative of how seriously to take these polls?

  • Seems to be a drip feed of Boris previous articles happening, Boris is going to want to keep well away from scrutiny over the next few weeks.

  • Or both going on at the same time.

    I’m of the opinion you can only control your own actions.

  • To be a soft leaver you need to acknowledge how bad a hard brexit would be

    Does that follow?

    The ones I know want a bespoke deal, but will accept a no deal in the short term, because ultimately a series of trade deals will have to be negotiated.

    Also only one leaver I know voted on immigration (they and their family are non-EU immigrants and they're basically bitter over the difference in costs and hurdles). All voted predominantly on sovereignty, but also mixed with a view to our long term prospects post a failed EU and a re-orientated world.

    I accept there may be a metro elite sampling bias which makes my brexiteers more likely to be free-trady hawks than Islamophobic dolemoles.

  • they can't kick people out for saying the same stuff as the party leader.

    They absolutely can, and unlike Labour they would.

  • At a higher level, yeah maybe, but at the local council level? You can get away with a lot before you’re asked to stop being a Conservative.

  • I won’t. The model nailed the 2017 election before I started there though. The data science isn’t really my area.

  • True to some extent. But they have managed the PR around suspensions fairly well.

    They will no doubt all end up back in due time.

  • A hard brexit will be a disaster of massive proportion.

    A soft brexit is pointless as it leaves us in and paying for all of the institutions without a say in them. We would clearly be better off staying in.

    A soft brexit was what was sold but it looks as though a hard brexit is what will be delivered.

  • Anyone looked at Gina Miller's tactical voting site?

    Mine is saying LD. Despite being a heavily Jewish area, I'm still surprised how high the LD are rated now vs Labour. I'll keep tracking them, but it might persuade me to switch from Green.

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  • they can't kick people out for saying the same stuff as the party leader.

    They absolutely can, and unlike Labour they would.

    Would you like to expand on that ? as the current evidence would suggest otherwise.

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General Election 2019

Posted by Avatar for dancing james @dancing james