EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

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  • Yes, we are fucked.

  • interim legal challenge rejected in Edinburgh

  • Part of the reasoning though was that the whole case will be heard before the prorogation will commence. So it's not really the total 'defeat' being reported.

  • good to know, ta

  • There also now appears a 102nd use for a John Major...­9523055

    (edited to remove paywalled FT link)

  • Same result in Belfast. Delayed to next week.

  • Yes, we are fucked.

    I really think we are. I can't see any way out of this that isn't a total disaster.
    No deal - Gammons happy, until everything goes to shit for years and they continue to blame remainers for killing the unicorns. Possible civil unrest. And everything being shit.
    Extensions - EU is going to give us max one more chance to work out what we want. Eventually something is going to have to happen.
    Revoke - Possible civil unrest, but at least would be able to eat and have medicines. Brexit party will get into government.
    Deal - Can't see anything that will get enough support now that it is seen as 'not brexit' + will have to have the backstop which won't pass.
    General election - just another postponement and probably another hung parliament and more stasis.

    I suppose in theory we could ask for a 1 year/2 year extension until 'alternative arrangements' can be developed to get rid of the backstop but the divisions and entrenchment will only get worse in that time.

    We're so fucked.

  • The only way out I can see is some massive external event. Asteroid impact, megatsunami, global thermal nuclear war, zombie apocalypse etc.

    Anything else is going to be decades of fighting, both political and eventually physical IMHO. I've always felt 'The Troubles' was a poor name for something that has caused so much loss of life but at least it leaves plenty of room for some other name for post-Brexit fighting.

  • So whenever anybody mentions "civil unrest": I have to say my kneejerk reaction is: Welcome to our world.

    Serious problems last year in Derry/Londonderry, a journalist shot, political peace process here down the pan...

    I still have my doubts that Remain will lead to serious fights. Scotland/Wales/NI will breathe a sigh of relief. The civil unrest types will give us lots of chat, when they realize most "hardperson" Brexiters are full of talk, but won't engage in a long serious campaign it will peter out in time.

    As for Farage, that tit has way too much power not even being -IN- government. So let's see what he is really going to deliver.

  • Seems to think we're going to leave without a deal, but with deals to keep things working smoothly, but it'll still be no deal

    That was literally Boris' words on R4 when he first took the office, and no one then bothered to challenge on him

  • I hope you're right re violence.

    But if we somehow end up staying in, the Tories will be finished for a while and the Brexit party will become a major part of government. Whether Farage actually wants to be part of that and to actually do something rather than shouting from the sidelines I'm not sure, but I'd guess that with Bannon support he'd have a good chance of getting a majority. There was a great thread posted a while back on the small swings each party needed to takeover (back when 4 were neck and neck).

  • Well, the polls are all over the place atm.
    Some conservatives are going Libdem (remainer ones) in quite large numbers
    Only very few Labour voters go BrexitParty, and not all Conservatives.

    SNP won't piss on them, neither will Welsh parties. I see them get seats for sure, but I don't see them get a majority.

    In any swing seats people will campaign like mad, the last time they tried to get a seat Labour got in by 800 voters people that normally don't act cos things are OK will this time.

    They don't stand in NI, they don't stand in Scotland or Wales.
    So if a Conservative party that stands in 4/4 UK countries (though in NI they did very poor) can't win a majority, a party that stands in just one and would need to scrape the barrel (again) to stand everywhere, I don't see them do it.

    I could be wrong obv. It will definitely not be ideal. But hey, all these right wing parties over in mainland Europe are full of talk but petering out in several countries too.

  • Even in the case of no Brexit there is no way the Brexit party will be become any kind of major player. They couldn't even win in Peterborough which is a Brexit heart land, they have no party infrastructure to fight a general election in any real way.

    They might be second or third in a shit load of constituency and get a load of votes but like UKIP before them they'll fail to make any real impact in a first past the post system.

  • Parliament could have said what it wanted instead of May's deal. It had the opportunity to do so, without being bound by May's red lines. It failed to do so, because MPs couldn't agree on an alternative. Twice. Parliament has been very good at turning down May's deal, but spectacularly poor at agreeing on an alternative.

    That's because any actual deal would need to acknowledge the tradeoffs - and no MP has yet been willing to do so.

  • Indeed. What the MPs have been doing is arguing about which colour of unicorn they'd like to have deliver their slice of neverending cake.

  • Brexit party paying to promote a tweet to me.
    What’s the way I can cost them the most - does clicking on the link cost them? What if I click a lot? Not prepared to share of course

  • Meanwhile hedge funds make billions, which is never going to be spent in the UK.

    Could easily solve the cost of housing VS income problems with that, but for some it is nice to sit on a pile of virtual gold. Can't even go for a swim in it...

  • I disagree.
    I do think they will suffer from lack of infrastructure, but the streams of dodgy cash they can call on will mitigate that a bit. They peaked at 20%+ in the polls back in July and if Brexit doesn't happen they will hoover up the rest of the 30% who favour no-deal from the conservatives. The tipping point to start winning seats is somewhere around mid to late 20's IIRC. No-one really knows what would happen in a 4 party race but I'd be pretty worried.

  • Yep, remember Cameron offered the referendum to keep UKIP at bay. If the Conservatives manage not to actually make Brexit happen, there is nothing they will be able to promise to prevent a stack more gammons spaffing in The Brexit Party box come polling day.

  • Three sizeable agencies we work for (basically our three biggest clients) have all folded in the last 8 months citing this shit show. Supermarkets delisting so many smaller/independent products at the moment including a big one for our 4th biggest client - an agency who have just made half their staff redundant this week. If they fold we'll have only a couple of small ongoing contracts and some ad hoc stuff. If that doesn't change within 3 months I'll have to shut doors after 5 years. Genuinely no idea what I'd do then. This has got the feeling of a memorably shit winter.

  • If we do nothing then everything will burn down... guaranteed!

  • an agency who have just made half their staff redundant this week.

    How many people are we talking about?

    Thanks for the write up btw, this is the perhaps the most concrete ‘from the horse’s mouth’ report I have come across yet.

  • The government have been sending out hundreds of gagging order after all.

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EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

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