EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

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  • For e.g.

    That's 7,000 directly employed in four factories, and they've stated unequivocally that they can't operate profitably with border delays, which will be severe from the end of March 2019.

    What can they do? Move production to lines that are in (and will stay in) the EU.

  • I thought tanking the economy is the plan?
    How is it going to weaken May?

  • Do you think the Tories would be electable with May in charge, in the middle of the economic disaster which she created?

  • All the hard brexiters were saying from the beginning they are happy to walk away with no deal.

  • Yes, of course they were - and still are. But that's because they are focussed on what they can do next - remove human rights, employment protections, environmental controls etc. They literally give no shits about the damage this will cause to the economy in the short term as it cants things very firmly toward them in the long term - we'd need to re-fight all the battles that took place to get paid leave etc etc. It's capital winning the struggle against labour, in one move.

    From their perspective it doesn't matter if they lose the next election - they know that once we're out we're likely out for 30 years, during which time they can make pots of cash and fuck the plebs.

  • Then we get Labour cakeism, unless something there changed.

    Not as bad but also not great :)

  • Well, depends on your perspective - you get to live in Ireland, and the Scottish get their own country.

  • If you think Brexit is a passionate subject, try Irish unification ;)

    A Scottish / NI / Irish union twinned with the city state of London then? 😝

  • Then we get Labour cakeism, unless something there changed.

    Nope, the Labour hard left, which still holds sway thanks to the weird Corbyn personality cult, still thinks the EU is anti-worker. If any evidence is needed regarding the total fuckupetry of the Labour hard left, this is it. Remove EU workers' rights protections, and Rees-Mogg will have small children working in cotton mills for starvation wages sooner than you can shout 'misty-eyed nostalgia'. Or 'sovereignty'.

  • yawn.

  • There was recently a report from Pew about Americans being unable to differentiate factual statements and opinion. I'd be interested to see the British results.

    Edit: here's the report - http://www.journalism.org/2018/06/18/dis­tinguishing-between-factual-and-opinion-­statements-in-the-news/

  • You can tell facts because the person doing the facting puts FACT at the end of their sentence.

  • If you think Brexit is a passionate subject, try Irish unification ;)

    A Scottish / NI / Irish union twinned with the city state of London then? 😝

    Corbyn would seem to be sincerely in favour of the Irish peace process, or that's my reading of it.

    I don't think he would countenance a hard border between I and NI, but I have seen nothing that I can now bring to mind on his opinion of the EU's backstop.

    Either he's ok with it, which creates a single regulatory zone of I+NI and a hard border with the rest of the UK, or he's not - which means doing it in a more permanent manner. A soft and hard option, as it were.

    The SNP's price for the coalition with Labour would be a fresh independence referendum I suspect, and given the choice between throwing in their fortunes with a fucked England, or staying in the EU I'd not want to bet on the Scots remaining in the UK.

  • Well it's complicated. EU labour protection is not perfect and I don't think Labour will introduce worse laws. That's somewhat unfair. (Though their opposition is meh)

    But I'm disappointed they don't reign in their nativists as the "no freedom of movement" talk will make a single market solution impossible (cakeism) and Labour could drive a really good conversation here, instead of pretty much parrot the Tories and continue to feed the anti immigration monster.

  • I don't think Labour will introduce worse laws.

    They might not. But they're catastrophically stupid if they think the Tories won't when they're in power without the limitations imposed by EU law. And they're catastrophically stupid if they think they're going to be in power until the end of time. And since those are the only two possible options...

  • For the last several weeks (months, actually) have following this thread (which has been massively helpful for someone who'd completely decoupled from mainstream politics out of complete frustration) I’ve increasingly been experiencing that feeling (usually bad) I get when an inevitable situation I had hoped would not transpire, would (against my worst fears) appear likely to be the actuality.
    So it seems to be unfolding now.
    There’s a kind of inevitable gravity at work, designed by forces beyond the comprehension of most - and beyond the control of many, including me, given there’s no likelihood of any real chance of reversing it as it’s not a democratic process at work here. You can’t election-out these forces.
    A kind of terrible impossible equation of People’s Will over Lowest Common Denominator able to be agreed by both Houses of Parliament (with all it’s schisms) divided by business (pressure) case for remaining divided by dogmatic political lines resulting in an impasse which then becomes rejected by the EU and out we (dead cat) bounce.
    Hedge funds will make a turn on the result and then withdraw.
    International business will off-shore and then re-locate.
    The UK will fragment as the Union unravels.
    England’s regions will devolve into a series of fiefdoms with control ceded by Westminster to those mayoralties, and localised politics and policy will be determined by them.
    Then people will get the local agenda they want, driving the nature of society they imagine they think they voted for / deserve.
    Someone said to me last Sunday ‘well, what’s the worst that could happen?’
    The answer needed to be well ‘jobs, economics, energy generation, the future, the value of your assets against the leverage debt of property you don’t own, a pension, healthcare, have you heard enough?’
    Not worth asking, because, you know, football. Best not to make a fuss.
    See some of you all in Chaoshire.

  • From yesterday's FT

    Boris Johnson’s Brexit explosion ruins Tory business credentials

    “Fuck business.” Never was the Brexit manifesto more succinctly captured than in Boris Johnson’s impromptu aside. As slogans go, it has everything. It surfs the populist wave of anger towards elites. It is easy to understand. Hell, it’s even shorter than “take back control”.

    The UK’s foreign secretary apparently outlined his new business strategy at a private reception, when challenged about the clamour from Airbus and BMW over the threat to jobs and investment. Mr Johnson’s aides say the remark was aimed at business lobbyists. It makes little difference. (He has now fled to Kabul to avoid having to resign rather than vote with the government for a new runway at Heathrow. The foreign secretary had said he would lie down in front of the bulldozers. It turns out he preferred to lie low.)

    “Fuck business.” It may have been a casual aside but it was also a revealingly contemptuous one, not least in its indifference to the fate of Airbus’s UK staff. This is the strategic nihilism of a spoiled child lashing out. After two years of failing to offer up even a scintilla of a plan, relying on magical thinking and the belief that if Britain just held its nerve, Europe would fold, this is all he had left — a petulant explosion.

    It is only a few weeks since Mr Johnson was caught saying much the same thing about Ireland as its complexities threatened the simplicity of his Brexit. So f*** business, f*** Northern Ireland — there is no workforce too large to sacrifice, no damage too great to endure as long as someone else does the enduring.

    Mr Johnson’s oratorical outrages have become so numerous that we have learnt to discount them. But he is still one of the leading lights of the Conservative party, the party of business, of free trade, of low taxation and getting the dead hand of the state out of the way of the nation’s wealth creators. For a Tory to be declaring “fuck business” should be as unlikely as Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn yelling something similar about the workers.

    If this were only Mr Johnson, one might disregard it as the latest effusion from an increasingly marginalised figure. But he was articulating a broader strand of opinion. Nigel Farage’s response to Airbus was that “manufacturing is 10 per cent of the UK economy”. So, manufacturing can get lost as well. The message that you did not see on the side of the Leave campaign bus is that economic pain is a price worth paying. For all the pretence of new business opportunities, this was always their view.

    Mr Farage, of course, is not a Conservative. So let us consider Jeremy Hunt, the health secretary and born-again Brexiter (a condition not entirely unrelated to considering himself a leadership contender). Challenged about Airbus’s comments, Mr Hunt said it was “completely inappropriate” for business to be voicing fears for the future of its workforce because it could undermine the prospects for a good deal. You have to wonder at some of this. Does Mr Hunt imagine that the EU was unaware of the issue? Does he envision a breathless Eurocrat reading about Airbus and thinking: “Oh wow. This could be really useful in the negotiations.”

    There has always been a tension in Conservatism between nationalism and commerce. Wiser Tories kept the two strands in harmony, recognising that a wealthy nation is more likely to be a strong (and indeed, stable) one. But Brexit has brought the tension back to the fore. Mr Johnson will not let a grubby thing like business inconvenience higher ideals. This ambivalence is why, for example, Brexiters are happy to forgo the planned cut in corporation tax to fund their Brexit pledge on health.

    Ranged against Mr Johnson’s new romantics are the less dashing realists such as Philip Hammond at the Treasury, Greg Clark, business secretary, and Theresa May’s deputy, David Lidington. The prime minister, herself no friend of unfettered capitalism, also sees economic chaos as a sub-optimal outcome. As one minister put it: “Whenever policy decisions come to the fore, facts trump ideology.”

    For now the realists are in control, but this fissure goes beyond Brexit. One need only listen to leavers raging at the chancellor or the Bank of England to know a Tory Rubicon has been crossed.

    This then is the state of British politics. A Labour party which has fallen to anti-capitalists and a Conservative party, infected by a strain of economic denialism and with a core — though not yet a majority — who place little store in business-friendly policies.

    For the first time in 40 years business cannot be sure that either major party cares about its interests. The nation must hope that global businesses making investment decisions and hearing of Mr Johnson’s remark do not plump for the obvious reply.

  • ^^^ Shrimsley has been on a roll recently

  • What can they do?

    Bring back British Leyland.

  • The manfriend called it a "war between manufacturing businesses and banks" yesterday.

    Banks will always make money and can hedge on hard Brexit, but a hard Brexit will destroy manufacturing. I think the banks protested a little but it is an interesting viewpoint.

  • Bring back British Leyland.


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EU referendum, brexit and the aftermath

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