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@Roaders
Yes, it's difficult knowing what to carry - I used to carry spare tubes ect but after not getting a puncture for about 2 months I stopped. I realise that I might get one one day but the reduced hassle / weight for the 99% of trips means that I am prepared to put up with inconvenience on the very rare occassions that something goes wrong.
It's the same with the chain - in a year's cycling over which I have covered around 2500 miles it's only happened once so I am prepared to risk it again.
I know that the tool is quite small but then where do you stop? What other tools do you carry as well just in case? I only have a small pannier that I carry my work clothes and laptop ect in so I don't have a whole lot of space. I get hot and sweaty enough as it is - I couldn't stand a ruck sack.
I am quite fortunate that on my 12 mile route ther are quite a few cycle shops. On the way home they're open, on the way in they're not. Monday wasn't the end of the world, jsut annoying. I could have always called a Taxi if there was a real problem.
Thanks for the suggestion though.