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  • The Poisson distribution is about this exactly. In small samples, random distribution doesn't look random. It clusters. For example, in an infinite coin-tossing episode, there will be clusters of heads. If you look at the distribution of results close-up, you cannot tell that the chance of getting heads is actually 50-50. I don't know if I'm explaining this very well. I'm exceedingly drunk.

    This is what is wrong with the government's units campaign. They failed to see that drinks tend to cluster around Friday and Saturday night. Hence people posting about statistical distributions when drunk.

    I'm not sure that HGV-cyclist death patterns are best explained by the Poisson distribution, though. What are the clusters you are proposing?


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