You are reading a single comment by @frank9755 and its replies. Click here to read the full conversation.
  • But in the long term, four years or a halving cycle, it has only ever gone in one direction, ie up.

    Literally everyone on the upslope of every asset bubble in history

    Of course you can make plenty of money on the upslope of a bubble, but trying to time it optimally is probably a mug's game.

  • Literally everyone on the upslope of every asset bubble in history

    That's rubbish - show us a bubble which has been through four complete cycles: growth, crash and recovery to a higher level.

  • Most of the bubbles described in this (old) article have some jaggies on the way up. It's anyone's guess whether they're random volatility or constitute "cycles", and the definition of a cycle is anyway more to do with market psychology than the underlying asset (with the possible exception of tulips which do have a growing season).

    https://www.man.com/insights/a-brief-history-of-bubbles

    I'm not unduly weighting that article, it's just a convenient collection of graphs in one place.

About

Avatar for frank9755 @frank9755 started