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kvragu
@hugo7
No experience of denting mudguards, but logically to me the problem is if you dent them without stretching the metal. That is what would pull the side on profile out of shape.
If you look at say how fabricators make motorcycle mudguards on an English wheel, you can see they're stretching the metal when making their curves.
My guess is what you want to do is make sure you're stretching the metal when you make your indents rather than only bending.
I'm sure someone else will know better, but I'd guess the way to do this is securing the 'gaurd and using some sort of metal form and vice - a bit like making dimples on chainstays.