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mix of both, you often see a lot of outgoing models in standard configurations for sale just after a model update/refresh.
Bought loads of refurbs over the years, a 2016 MBP has just died (screen but still functions with monitor) that was a refurb. only warranty i have overhead was a new not refurb 13in MBP that was freezing, turned out to be pressure on the base when picking it ups one handed pushing a badly soldered ram chip.
I use this site that mails you when your preferred model/configuration becomes available.
https://refurb-tracker.com
Mr_Smyth
Aren’t the refurbs often just new old stock of previous models no longer sold in the Apple Stores?