It will go to the HOL who vote it down, then it goes through parliament who vote it through..or not?
And if that happens the EU parliament and commission both will potentially finally put the squeeze on with targeted sanctions and more cost increases and economic misery.
Looks like NI will get screwed over to please the ERG and save Johnson
https://news.sky.com/story/theres-one-clear-winner-after-boris-johnsons-grim-week-and-its-not-keir-starmer-or-the-tory-rebels-12631454