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  • Surely our estimations of Russian military capabilities are based on observations not what they say they are?

  • During the Cold War it suited both sides to exaggerate Soviet capabilities despite the west knowing a lot of their equipment was unserviceable or obsolete. Maybe the habit has continued.
    There is little mention in the press of a he drubbing Turkey gave a Russian mechanised unit last year

  • The story is that Russia dropped paratroopers near Kyiv. They didn't have heavy weapons and were easily beaten by Ukrainians. If you combine that with the other story that Russian tanks which drove over the border have outrun their supply lines, you can see how Ukraine would have held them off. Maybe the Chechens could only bring a few of their tanks to bear because of a lack of fuel? But who knows. I doubt journalists are able to confirm what's true and what's propaganda.

    I'm also hoping that Russian generals are dragging their feet because they don't want to kill Ukrainian civilians. Some of the Russian officers must be deeply unhappy about all this. It wouldn't be hard for them to blow up a bridge, blame it on Ukrainians, and then have an excuse for a fuel convoy to be days later than planned.

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