Imperial College modelling underpinning the unlocking scenario outlined by the PM today
Figure 2E shows a full unlocking at the end of April (as favoured by the hard-line Covid Research Group) would potentially lead to a 4th wave as big or bigger that we've just been through which is simply unthinkable. Even with the most gradual unlocking scenario another 40,000 to 60,000 deaths are modelled to occur by the end of the year.
I can’t seem to find this in the report, so apologies if I missed it, but do these projections all presuppose that there will be no return to lockdown? So, we would get another wave, but without taking any particular measures to reduce it?
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