• NI is now on a course for re-unification, it's been sacrificed to get Boris out of the Benn act.

    Whatever happens after that deal is ratified, the leverage is 99% on the EU side as they can allow future relationship negotiations to collapse and there's no penalty for Ireland.

    I would expect transition extension negotiations to be sabotaged by the ERG, and a crash out at the end of 2020 for R-UK, whilst NI stays (effectively) within the EU.

  • NI was slowly only on the way to ROI anyway.

    This will intensify efforts, however, there is still no agreement on dealing with Trouble victims, still sectarianism and ROI is not yet ready.

    Earliest I expect any border poll is 10 years...or more. ROI won't walk into a shitty badly prepared referendum with no plan. That'd be Brexit ;)

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