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Over the last month conservatives have got back 2% in the polls to 38% vs labour static on 39%.
How is that even possible? Some people have looked at the last month and thought - yeah, they seem like they're running the country well, I'd vote for them.(1) Some people are outside the 'London bubble'.
(2) A huge problem with perceptions of executive power is that many people don't see the content of what's being done/proposed to be done but only the exercise of power/the procedural part of it. Theresa May is obviously desperately trying to avoid facing a key vote and her management of the Commons is seen by many as strong and decisive (believe it or not)--the old dictatorship problem.
(3) The bogeyman Jeremy Corbyn hasn't put forward/been able to put forward anything better than/parallel to her 'deal'. Remember how the mood in the election campaign last year changed completely when Labour published its manifesto--they don't have anything like that at the moment. Sure, they have policies on their web-site but 'the deal' is what the public are being asked to decide on--and many people will think that something is better than nothing.
@andyp --I doubt it's because Labour is 'ambivalent' on 'Brexit' (which it is--Corbyn says one thing and Starmer another, which is probably co-ordinated). I think it would be much worse for them if they'd come out in favour of 'Remain'. Obviously, not having a clear proposal is partly due to being ambivalent, but I think the problem here is just that as they haven't done all the negotiations, they can't put anything on the table that's even close to 'the deal' as a document, making it impossible to achieve the 'manifesto effect'.
(4) When there's a dilemma, people tend to react by taking sides (as 'something must be done') rather than trying to unpick the reasons for the dilemma. Look at May always trying to set up the 'choice' as between her 'deal' and 'no deal'. If you divide people, you then play the game of trying to get 51 over 49%.
(5) 'Brexit' fatigue.
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Oliver Schick
Over the last month conservatives have got back 2% in the polls to 38% vs labour static on 39%.
How is that even possible? Some people have looked at the last month and thought - yeah, they seem like they're running the country well, I'd vote for them.